How Six Working Class Voters Have Shifted Their Views Over the Past Four Months – and What They Say Democrats Could Do to Earn Their Votes

In our months-long discussion boards with the same working class voters, we’ve seen meaningful shifts on the economy and affordability, offering a glimpse into how Democrats could make midterm gains.

We’re back this week with another update from the largest research effort to understand why working class voters are trending away from Democrats.

For months, in addition to dozens of focus groups across 20+ states, our long quantitative surveys, and other research tools, we have been conducting what are called “qual boards” – online discussion groups, like a Reddit-style message board, where the same working class participants receive prompts on certain issues and share their views.

This tool has been fascinating because it has allowed us to hear from the same core set of working class voters week after week to hear how their opinions are changing (or not), unfiltered in their own words.

This week, we want to offer a snapshot of six of those working class voters and how their views have shifted over time. The findings offer unique insights into how Democrats could appeal to working class voters ahead of the midterm elections.

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THE TL;DR

Some key takeaways:

• Working class voters remain very concerned about affordability and generally believe costs have not gone down this year and that President Trump has not focused enough on addressing the cost of living.

• In the spring, many of them were willing to give Trump the benefit of the doubt on his tariff plan – but by summer, many expressed serious concerns that tariffs are hurting their lives by making things more expensive, despite what he’d promised during his campaign.

• These voters aren’t really souring on Trump’s handling of immigration, even as his national approval ratings sink on the issue. They largely support him cracking down on illegal immigration, even when they express some discomfort with how he is conducting deportations or defying court orders.

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WHO ARE THE VOTERS?

The six working class voters whose evolving views we’re talking about today are:

• Jane: A 25-year-old white woman from Minnesota (voted Biden 2020 → Trump 2024)

• Jackie: A 47-year-old Black woman from Georgia (voted third party 2020 → Trump 2024)

• Alan: A 43-year-old white man from Maine (voted Trump in 2020 and 2024)

• Andy: A 37-year-old white man from North Carolina (voted third party 2020 → Trump 2024)

• Jennifer: A 31-year-old Hispanic woman from Florida (voted Biden 2020 → Trump 2024)

• Joan: A 49-year-old Hispanic woman from Texas (voted Trump in 2020 and 2024)

All of them supported Trump last year, and we have been asking them questions about his handling of various issues since he took office. We’ve also asked them about their views of Democrats, including what it would take for them to support a Democrat in the midterms. Interestingly, all still don’t know for sure whether they will support Republicans or Democrats in 2026, indicating that they’re still up for grabs.

We are anonymizing their names for confidentiality purposes.

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INCREASING NEGATIVE SENTIMENT ON INFLATION, AFFORDABILITY, AND TARIFFS

All six of these voters expressed ongoing concerns about the cost of living and how expensive things were for them. In the spring, many of them gave Trump credit for trying to work on the economy and address issues he inherited like inflation. But by summer, many were singing a different tune.

JANE:

JACKIE:

JOAN:

These overall sentiments about how things aren’t getting more affordable tie directly to more in-depth negative views of Trump’s tariffs and the general belief that they are making things more expensive, not less.

JANE ON TARIFFS:

ANDY ON TARIFFS:

JENNIFER ON TARIFFS:

JOAN ON TARIFFS:

One voter, Jennifer, actually went from giving Trump a “B” letter grade for his job as president in April to an “F” in June. In the spring, she expressed hope and optimism for Trump’s plan and a willingness to be patient to see it yield fruit. But by summer, she had soured significantly.

These working class voters provide a useful snapshot into how the very segment of voters who powered Trump to victory in 2024 are feeling unsatisfied with his economic stewardship so far. All these voters agree that prices have either stayed high or are going up. Things haven’t gotten cheaper for them, and they specifically name Trump’s biggest signature economic policy as making things worse, not better. Their hope was that tariffs would at least create manufacturing jobs in the United States, but those aren’t materializing either.

The biggest concern we’ve seen in these discussion boards is that, over time, Trump’s tariffs have become less front-of-mind for these voters. As the tariffs drift in and out of voters’ minds, it will be important for Democrats to consistently message that his tariff actions are directly contributing to higher prices and a more unaffordable economy – and failing to deliver the manufacturing jobs he promised they would. This is especially important as Trump tries to roll out various supposed “trade deals” with messaging that claims the opposite.

Stick to what people are experiencing economically in their daily lives. If the costs of goods and services are high or going up because of trade uncertainty and tariffs, consistently remind voters that Trump’s tariffs are causing this reality and things aren’t getting better.

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NO REAL SOURING ON TRUMP ON IMMIGRATION

Unlike on the economy and affordability, Trump generally continues to see support among these working class voters on the issue of immigration. Even when they express some discomfort with how he is conducting deportations or defying court orders, his handling of border security continues to drive his positive ratings among these voters. It’s worth noting that they are generally seeing more of the Trump side of the argument and are less familiar with the raids or arrests of people who are here legally or with papers. They primarily view Trump’s crackdown as keeping his promise to get the border and illegal immigration under control.

Jennifer, the 31-year-old Hispanic voter from Florida who supported Biden in 2020 then Trump in 2024 but has gone from giving Trump a “B” to an “F,” exemplifies much of what we’ve heard on immigration in these discussion boards as well as in our focus groups over time.

JENNIFER ON WHAT TRUMP HAS DONE THAT SHE LIKES:

Other voters struck similar chords:

JACKIE:

“I agree with deporting those who are here illegally, especially if they are involved in gangs. I don’t see the need to bring them back to America for a ‘fair trial.’ it’s not fair for Americans to keep funding migrants. If Congress or the Supreme Court wants to continue harboring migrants, the funds should come from their pockets, not taxpayers.”

JOAN:

“I know that if I went to another country illegally, the repercussions would be worse than what America is doing now. We need to imagine going somewhere illegally like North Korea, do you know what they would do to us there? It's much worse. What Donald Trump and his staff is doing is nothing compared to what other countries will do. Why is it such a big deal? We're very lucky to live in America and have been spoiled to the point of other countries being disgusted with us. We need to make changes and what he's doing seems fair.”

Similarly, when asked in June what these voters feel most positively or optimistic about looking ahead to the rest of Trump’s term in office, they consistently point to immigration.

JANE:

“I am looking forward to America feeling safer and stronger. I hope we get out all the illegal criminals and have safer borders.”

ANDY:

“I think immigration. A lot of people are upset about it, but we are just acting like every country in the world.”

JOAN:

“I feel optimistic about the immigration situation. Yes, there's riots and what not but that's not his doing. He's trying to enforce what already was in place before he took office many many many years ago under the Obama Administration. I've already seen people talk about the positive changes in their neighborhood with gangs.”

In May, three of these six voters also named immigration as their biggest concern about Democrats. Two said it directly tied to how they feel about their families’ safety, and one wrote: “The Democrats have allowed immigration and border security to become unmanageable. They have allocated taxpayer funds to financially support undocumented immigrants when those resources should be used to improve the lives of American citizens.”

To the degree there was vulnerability for Trump on immigration among these voters, it related to court rulings that he was violating the law and the perception that he was defying court orders. Some voters disagreed with the court rulings and saw Trump as taking reasonable decisive action on a big problem (as seen in the quotes above). But others viewed his disregard of court rulings as “appalling” and “kinda scary.”

Overall, despite his national approval ratings on immigration sinking, among this set of working class voters, we have not seen significant dissatisfaction with Trump’s actions. They generally believe he is acting in the best interest of America by deporting people here illegally, and they see him displaying strength. In contrast, they continue to view Democrats as weak on the issue, driving their negative ratings of the party.

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WHAT THEY SAY DEMOCRATS COULD DO TO EARN THEIR VOTES IN 2026

Interestingly, all six of these voters remain up for grabs in 2026. When asked in June about the midterms, none of them expressed firm support for Republicans next year.

Almost all named costs and affordability as the most important issue for their votes.

JANE:

“Lowering inflation and getting common goods back down in price is important to me.”

JACKIE:

“With the elections approaching in November, the most critical issue I’m facing is inflation. The rising cost of everyday essentials such as groceries, gas, and housing—has made it increasingly difficult to stay afloat, even with two full-time incomes in our household. This financial pressure is affecting not only my quality of life but also my ability to plan for the future.”

ANDY:

“Economy. I'm a ‘pocket-book’ voter mostly.”

JENNIFER:

“Tariffs, Economy, Social Security, Medicaid. I need politicians that care for me and my family, the working Americans, more than their own agenda.”

JOAN:

“Healthcare costs for me personally are very important. So I'd like to see more leaders talk about what changes can be made.”

Asked what the Democrats could do to make these working class voters consider voting for them, here’s what they said:

JANE:

“That they care about the bigger issues like the cost of living. I don’t care as much about the little things and I want them to show that they have my best interests in mind and also aren’t super left leaning and will listen to arguments from both sides.”

JACKIE:

“Inflation and the rising cost of living are major concerns for me, and I want to make sure I’m supporting candidates who are committed to addressing these issues.”

ALAN:

“I think the typical thing would be to point out the downfall of what some of the president's decisions have been and then contrast their goals to that. They'd aim for things they think would be relative to me: costs of everyday items, infrastructure betterment, and the like.”

ANDY:

“If he or she comes to my door and comes up with a plan for the economy and keeping America out of foreign wars I would listen to them.”

JENNIFER:

“I'm leaning right now for Democrats but I need to see change on their agenda, I need them to focus more on the working families and the economy. If they show they understand my family economic struggles they might win my support, I need someone who cares more for the people than fighting republicans, both parties need to work together for a better America.”

JOAN:

“Maybe if they said, ‘Hey, I want to make a change to healthcare. I want to make sure everyone has access to the healthcare they need even if they don't have money for their co-pay or haven't met their deductible. No doctor’s office will be able to refuse to see you because you cannot pay your co-pay. People with disabilities should automatically be granted the equipment they need to make their lives better. Especially if the state has already approved them as disabled.’ I would invite this Democrat in and let him hear what I have to say because in my experience, the opposite of everything I just mentioned has happened to us.”

These unfiltered comments should give Democrats a roadmap of not only what issues to focus on but how to talk about them. Polls can show you macro trends and offer some insights, but these real-world statements about the working class’ lived experience and what may resonate with them should be a blueprint for how to connect with the very voters who have drifted away from Democrats and fueled Trump’s return to power.