As someone who has largely voted Democrat for over 50 years, let me say that the Democrats don’t have a demographic problem or a messaging problem. You have a platform problem. Other than opposition to Donald Trump, what are the three positive planks of the party? What is the party’s position on immigration? What is the party’s position on a balanced budget and the deficit? Tax reform? How to mitigate the employment effects of trade and AI? What is the Democrats’ vision of the American future? These are the things you need to be talking about. Listening tours are a waste of time and money. Everybody knows what the issues are. The Ds need a proper response.
Dems talked about all of these things and had programs and policies for all of these things. If the media won't cover them…
If you don't address the information problem, the right-wing noise machine and the abdication of the mainstream media, then you're not addressing the real issues.
Partly agree. Democrats long ago forgot what the end goals are (domestic harmony, common defense, etc.) and the rationale for most interventions. Party positions should never be created outside a logically coherent model with well defined functional relationships and performance measures. And, as the “project” makes clear, Democrats are as adept at exploiting logic fallacies as are the Republicans ( “working class” relies on the anchoring effects to, yes?). Here’s the challenge, I think … the progressive movement has tried to implement two mega-programs since 1970: (1) universal access to the education and skills necessary for fulfilling work, and incentives to move to centers of innovation where relevant employers are located; and, (2) subsidies that offer a good and continuously improving quality of life to people who opt out of the education or who choose not to move. The Democrats sat by while the Republicans convinced those people who are in group 2 that they are righteous, that they are being cheated, and that the people in group 1 are elitist. Maybe it is time to ask WHY Democrat leaders only position is that they aren’t Trump.
Citizens United is heavily to blame as well as Social media fringe elements. Especially the Naive and Self Righteous SJW Hard Left who insist on Demonizing and keeping the facade of the Democratic Party being divided. Notice how the MSM loves running with it.
Agree totally that the SJ Warriors and the radical positions they espouse have turned off a huge number of individuals who use to vote Democratic, yet the huge majority of Dem elected officials either counterproductively continue to either embrace them or le sat offer little pushback on two of the most poisonous issues for the party - illegal immigration and physical treatments ( hormones and) surgery for minors, and you can throw in allowing trans women to compete with biological women in sports. Thank you Van Hollen , AOC, Pritzker, Walz, and all the other hypocritical virtue signaling pols who are hastening the destruction of the party.
But a significant percentage of voters want widely distributed opportunity, not a choice of a few centers of prosperity versus subsidy. The latter choice is a turnoff to many people who do not want to live in a few large cities.
Republicans are offering promises of a manufacturing revival and increased small business deregulation to promise to spread prosperity more widely.
What can you offer for more geographically widespread prosperity? That’s the secret sauce.
While this thread may be intellectually stimulating and correct on many points, it does not bring the “average”American into the conversation. Nor does it address their every day concerns.
I agree with Mitch. The Dems need to go into communities and listen to the concerns of Americans.
Per the results of a post 2024 election:
Post-election polling by Navigator Research on the Democratic brand found that 58 percent of Americans believe the party “prioritizes other groups of people that don't include me.” Our Democratic brand was also seen as too elite and coastal.
I don’t think that can be clearer.
To recover and survive, the Dems need to stop talking among themselves, stop hashing over the same ideas of why the election was lost and..
Go into local communities and listen and talk with Americans from all walks of life about there concerns, worries, fears and day to day challenges.
After that, remember what was said and with work with these communities to effect positive changes. Especially at the local level.
That is the only future for the party. Intellectual exchanges are interesting especially in a personal environment like a home, or small gathering.
But highly ineffective when relating thoughts and ideas to average Americans.
There must be, in the model I use, a concentration of skilled workers (“thickness”) and a feedback loop that draws employers. That model has reflected reality since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution and through the current service industry economy. I am not aware of any evidence-basedmodel that could be used to generate dispersed innovation. History offers no examples. I don’t know if, how, or why people have shifted to a belief that they dont need STEM schooling and / or they don’t need to move to where the innovations are happening to optimize personal opportunities. I suspect that many people influenced by Republican magical thinking also don’t accept that innovation grows the economic pie, either.
There are existing community college programs to train skilled manufacturing workers in less time than it takes to build a factory, and no shortage of workers interested in being trained.
Manufacturing has historically been widespread across the US, often in rural areas, not isolated in a few thick places. Presumably history could be your evidence-based model. This is precisely why the varied politics surrounding manufacturing are the way they are.
People with STEM schooling do not necessarily need to move to where innovations are happening to maximize personal opportunities if they WFH, which is particularly available for tech careers. (Personal experience talking.).
Dispersed small business development is strengthened with streamlined regulations and a decent universal postal system. With e-commerce so popular, many small businesses are relatively location independent. (Also personal experience talking, side gigs.)
Manufacturing is location dependent, but “decent number of trained people within commuting distance, nearby interstate or waterway or railroad, land available, and decent availability of electricity” covers a LOT of the US outside big cities.
I am skeptical, but We may be talking completely different things. Small manufacturers are indeed scattered widely across the U.S. most Americans prefer not to have those jobs, but they pay bills. The plants run processes that don’t rely so much on innovation. The government subsidies that allow the plants to operate, and workers to commute to the plants, are critical to the location decisions. Well paid, fulfilling manufacturing employers seem to require a thickness of experienced tradespeople and skilled workers … think manufacturing that requires new materials, new ways of storing and generating power, and new processes. When that kind of manufacturing matures, it moves … maybe from Boston to Detroit to Atlanta to Juarez, and then to a network of small shops. They get subsidies too, but they generate economic activity that returns more than the government input. It is not by accident that the innovation and related economic growth in the U.S. since 1970-80 or so is because of the ability to deconstruct manufacturing into unskilled line workers and the skilled service sector, like engineering and finance.
The political question before us – beyond the basics of whether our very democracy will remain intact – is whether this electoral victory was an aberration or the start of a larger political realignment. Democrats have to act urgently to find our pathway back.
We cannot win consistently without making gains with working class voters. We cannot win without making gains with men. And without a plan for competing and winning in the South and the Heartland, a Democratic governing coalition may cease to exist.”
One has to ask, what is the commonality between the Bernie Sanders/Donald Trump voter and the heavy turnout Sanders is receiving in ruby red districts on his anti-oligarchy tour. For political figures who appear diametrically opposed, their messaging on 'getting ahead' is remarkably the same, although dressed differently.
In either case, they are genuinely directing their messaging to the working class.
And that would be why they lost the election. Irony that Dems stereotype the right as racist when the left predominantly believes they are morally and intellectually superior (and don’t see what’s wrong with that). They thought the same things in 1860s about a different half of the country…but same line of thought.
The stereotype of Dems feeling morally and intellectually superior is a red herring. Having received the gift of a decent education and essential moral guidance myself, I’ve devoted my career to opening paths for others to attain these. The Democratic Party has gaping faults of course, but elite attitudes and smugness are largely absent. Now contrast this with the open eliteness and smugness of those controlling all 3 branches of our Government, alongside the destruction they are wreaking.
Mr. Landrieu exemplifies the attitude of most Dems in wanting to identify problems and then fix them in order to benefit the most people possible. What is wrong with that?
Is it even likely we will ever have another election… the alacrity with which they’re destroying our democracy is beyond terrifying…. Although we can’t allow them to terrify… that’s their goal…. Let’s use “very, very alarming”!!!!! Please share your research on Substack with us seniors who cannot subscribe to all that’s out there! Thank you for your posting!!!
I am all for all of the above. My only concern is if Dems cannot counteract the lies from MAGA and their megaphones in right wing media, especially Fox News, I fear it won’t be successful. Without the lies that generate fear and hate, which motivate voting, the GOP is nothing. The Dems seem to believe that people will see through the lies and do the right thing. This has been proven wrong time and time again. Truth and reality need a champion and so far the Dems have fallen far short.
I attended my first liberal political fundraiser recently after deciding that I should get more involved.
Early on the topic about what the Democratic Party’s strategy should be came up. One seemingly reasonable sounding man suggested that the approach should be to get angry and start fighting dirtier. He then went on to say that he’s encouraged by the recent AOC rallies and that he thinks she might be the answer.
I mentioned that nobody that ever I’ve discussed politics with at work would vote for her. She may get more Democrats out to vote and even win an election, but then what? We’re still stuck in the same downward, tit for tat spiral with one side ramming things through, while the other side stone walls. Endless campaigns of resentment and vengeance flip flopping back and forth.
I mentioned that I think Democrats need to change their strategy. It’s important that Democrats put forward moderate, populist candidates that can better connect to working class and rural voters.
Perhaps they should try a strategy of picking one common sense, grand view policy that could take a long time to bear fruit, but would ultimately yield better democratic results for free and fair elections. They should make less promises and stick to fixing flaws in our electoral processes that are leading more and more minority rule.
I told the group that in my experience many of the people that may lean Republican or MAGA aren’t actually as unreasonable or as unwilling to budge as they might think.
After hearing my opinion, a well meaning woman in the group gave me an infantilizing look and patted me on the back while the others giggled, as if to say, “Aww, it’s cute how naive you are with your great, big ideas little boy.”
That moment reemphasized to me the notion that it wasn’t necessarily just my ideas they found silly, but that they genuinely don’t believe that Americans can unite.
Nearly every one of my blue collar colleagues from all over the country is either Republican, Independent, Libertarian, or disaffected. Democrats are not speaking in their language.
The liberal, educated class is currently buzzing about potentially fantastic ideas like Abundance or using slogans like “Fight the Oligarchy”, but do you know who’s not listening to wonky books or saying phrases like that? My coworkers. They’re listening to people like Joe Rogan because he’s speaking to them in their language.
When Rogan endorsed Trump, I knew he would win. Some of my colleagues who are not big fans of Trump had told me that they weren’t going to vote at all, but when he endorsed him that was good enough for them.
The Republican rhetoric has more successfully painted a picture that they’re a better representation of the working class and rural communities. Despite having members who are just as equally educated and disconnected with the actual day to day life of a working class or rural American as Democrats, a Republican opportunist can put on a fishing shirt and a pair of cowboy boots and pander to their grievances.
A study was published last year by researchers Eric Hansen and Nicholas Carnes from Loyola University Chicago and Duke University respectively, finding that out of more than 7,300 lawmakers nationwide, just 116 (1.6%) currently or last worked in manual labor, service industry, clerical or labor union jobs. In 10 states, there was not a single lawmaker who currently or last worked in an occupation that could be classified as a working-class job: Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Virginia.
We need a broader collation of Americans to engage that currently aren’t and we need to attempt to persuade more Republican voters to change their minds with a more balanced and normal sounding approach. People are turned off by being scolded, reprimanded and lectured. We need to vigorously call out unAmerican injustices, but not shame and divide in the process.
Condescending language doesn’t unite. It may get attention, but it won’t solve the problems. We need to unite in a pursuit to live up to our American dream, despite our individual differences. Our country is not filled with a majority of un-empathetic and evil citizens. Maybe I’m naive, but I’m an American and a Texan and I was raised to dream big.
Everything about this post hits the nail on the head. If the author of the article would just listen to you - they’d save a hell of a lot of money and time. Very well written and insightful in a way I rarely see with the left (at least publicly).
The Dems problem is not messaging - it’s themselves. America knows exactly what you really think of us.
If they want to change hearts - start by changing your thinking - then execute authentically. It’s that simple.
Very hard to reach the working class when Dems believe they are morally and intellectually superior to them (and don’t understand why it’s wrong to think that way anyway). Right? Duh? Yep.
I won’t go as far as to say you’re right or wrong because I can’t know what is in another person’s heart, but just for the sake of the thought experiment, let’s say you’re right…
We’re still faced with the question about whether we want to live in a liberal democracy, or an illiberal one.
Since these people are still citizens eligible to vote and unless you’re suggesting that we deprive them of that ability, then that means that they’ll still be a part of the system whether we like it or not.
So we can either attempt to:
1) Shame them until they admit the errors of their ways (haven’t seen much evidence this works)
2)Win elections with just “our team” and force change upon them (which will always lead to a resentful, vengeance based counter movement that will only further the spiral and put “our” victories at risk if/when they regain power. We’re not going to trick or force them into liking us)
Or 3) Try to find bipartisan, common ground issues and work to effectuate gradual change. (Frustrating, boring and unsatisfying but only viable path I can see)
Like it or not this is a democracy and as long as that’s the case, they will still play their role. It seems to me the only question is how we want to play it. I would suggest we don’t lose our dignity or integrity in the process. The day we decide that the “ends justify the means”, we’ve lost…as difficult as that may be.
I think you’re right that Kamala Harris is/was fairly moderate compared to some and I think we might be on the same page concerning her for the most part.
I will say though that despite having moderate inclinations, she wasn’t successfully connecting with any of my right or independent leaning coworkers. They still viewed her as a coastal elite who’s disconnected from their realities both in terms of the working class and rural aspects. Right or wrong, that’s just how they felt.
My view for years now, long before Kamala Harris specifically, is that the Democratic Party in general has struggled to put forward candidates that can successfully connect with their realities.
Something about her and many others just hasn’t spoken to them effectively and I think it would be in the interest of the party and the country if they could do better in that regard.
Your friends,coworkers... or whomever you're referring to....they didn't want to tell you this ..deep down they have issues with her because they have to, they want to, they need to...they can't help it ....she's not white,and she's a woman....and they need to lead an active social life without being called bigots ...so they rationalize with some lame bullshit.
And white Texans(I lived there for many yrs,still have friends) who aren't GOP always feel like they have to crawl deep inside of their own assholes before they see(let alone admit) how bigoted their own kith and kin, family members, and friends are .
Sadly, your white compadres are not alone ... unfortunately a whole cohort of brownies in South Texas enjoy sniffing bigot rectum also.
Thank you for your service on the bench by the way. I have great admiration for individuals who made the choice to serve something bigger than themselves. The gears keep turning because of citizens like you.
Dems need to invest more in aggressive persuasion with regards to policies.
Make the Senate GOP believe that the threat of eliminating the legislative filibuster is so real, that they'll acquiesce to bipartisanship.
If they don't , then the legislative filibuster goes once the Dems take the Senate ,and PR, Guam get Senate seats .
We are here because they never passed the comprehensive legislation they knew was needed.
No comprehensive immigration reform, a little bit of progress towards infrastructure and climate change legislation pertaining to infrastructure… weak ass health insurance reform(forget about actual healthcare), a piss poor stimulus package in 2008…a little bit….that's it.
But it's packaged as if it's a fuckin big deal. In addition, they totally retreated after SB744 Comprehensive immigration reform was not taken up in the house by Boehner in 2013.
Allowed GOP and Trump to totally dominate the airwaves and media platforms..even if they were lying and hurting ppl.
Kept lurching rightwards on big ticket immigration policy towards unfocumented popn inside the country,but lurched leftwards towards would be immigrants that arrive as refugees but are actually economic migrants just like the undocumented who've been here for decades with no respite.
This obviously pissed of brown immigrant , mixed status voter families .
You saw that with the urban immigrant voter switching political allegiance towards the GOP.
And here we are .. constitutional crisis after crisis caused by an admin using immigrants and the immigration system as a conduit for authoritarianism.
Dems never fight back on immigration, never expend political capital on immigration reform…because they've been convinced by a few focus groups and one (Blue Rose) analyst to avoid the topic of legalizing ppl.
Apparently aggressive persuasion like what AOC , Bernie, Trump do… doesn't work in the eyes of these ppl.
But we're here, so neither does the let's sniff racist rectum strategy by adopting GOP talking points and policy and hoping Joe/Jose Xenophobe votes Dem.
No wonder brown blue collar voters turned.
No real healthcare, no real investments in their life through public policy in case of exogenous events or endogenous shocks, no comprehensive immigration reform.
They didn’t turn toTrump because the country wants itsy bitsy piecemeal legislation.
These pollsters and Blue Rose analytics have no way of quantitatively accounting for that counterfactual. They don't .
Passing big legislation that affects ppl all over for a time frame that spans decades…that sorta legislation is what the Dems have to do, …. in terms of their constituencies . Not a GOP lite platform.
Until then…nothing changes.
The only Dems that need to be elected are big legislative ticket item-Dems. Not small time legislation.
Human beings who aren't rich pols don't have 50 years to wait.
Achieve it through filibuster elimination or bipartisanship, but achieve it .
Ppl with that aggressive mindset.
That's why Trump had political momentum, inspite of losing in 2020. He captured that.
David Shor and Blue Rose’s analytics(the Dem party’s go to quantitative ppl on measures of political saliency) don't use multiple general dynamic equilibria models to capture various contexts behind voting behavior.
So, you'll see Dems rectum sniffing flavor of the month asshole after every election loss.
I get what you’re saying. The flop flopping back and forth cycle that continues to fuel polarization has to stop. Trump is going all in for big change…too far. So you think the Democrats should raise the ante right? Go big or go home?
I’m with you on something big, but whatever it is, it has to be something that isn’t going to infuriate the opposition to the point that they mount a rebellion. Otherwise the cycle just continues.
If we really want to fix it, we have to do it in a way that lasts.
Yes. Only possible if such a mentality(go big or go home) exists with the current crop of incumbents. And it's a mixed diagnostic on that one. It can't be just one piece of big legislation. It should be on many ,many fronts....New Deal style ...
The only way is for Senate Dem incumbents to grow a spine and abolish legislative filibuster...I don't think the GOP is in any mood to be substantive visavis policy prescriptions for at least a decade. It's not as if the next two cycles are not going to be full of Trump wannabes from the GOP bench.
This is great. And, it's late. Two things: Why are some states gray, i.e. not included? At some point, every single voter in every single state must be sought after to vote for us. The point is to get more votes than Republicans. The point of winning elections is not to get a trophy, but to better represent the people. The fact Democrats decided to write people off breaks my heart. That was supposed to be how Republicans acted, not us. Send your ivy-league educated interns into every state. Embed them and consider it a foreign exchange student program. Put them to work rebuilding Democratic Party apparatus at the local level.
Second, build long-term relationships within the community. Re-create the equivalent of when I was a kid and politicians sat at Dairy Queen drinking coffee with the farmers. There's an authentic focus group. If a community doesn't have community activities, let the Democratic Party start some! Sponsor fundraisers for the school, do the river clean-up, the Easter Egg hunt, etc.
If you want to know what the working class thinks, then go live with them. And - you could ask Bernie. Every time he speaks, the working-class responds. Back in 2015, he was the voice crying in the wilderness. Someone should have taken the lessons from how his campaign resonated with the working class and undertaken to incorporate his points into the Democratic strategy. And please, take a lesson from those crowds he is currently drawing. Send some Democratic operatives into those crowds and ask them what they want from us and from government.
Also, Democrats - stop wasting our small donor money on internal BS and consultants. Get out into the grass roots and start plowing the ground so we can get more votes than the other side.The people are rising up. Why not let the Democratic Party jump in front of that bandwagon and actually present them with some leaders? Unless the unrest that is building has some direction, Trump can and will take advantage of the chaos.
Mayor, I love hearing that your leading this work! Ten years ago, we were known as the party of education (+26 over Republicans). Today, we’re underwater!! I’d love to hear your thoughts on what Dems must do to regain our advantage on education. We’re doing some deep work on this at DFER. Would love to compare notes anytime.
Thanks for your comment and engagement! We hope you keep following along to learn more as we’re listening to working class voters to help inform future policies.
Thank you for doing this. I couldn't agree more that listening is how this party will find a path forward. I am a Gen-Xer and know precisely why we're here. There is a new generation of voters out there, 18-45, and life hasn't been easy for them. They grew up with diversity/inclusion, and for the most part, don't know what the big deal is. They expect it. So we're not winning any votes by making that our central issue. These kids grew up with school shootings, trying to learn in an environment where school shooter drills became as normal as fire drills. Whether they would admit it or not, they were probably scared and uncertain all the time. They needed to find ways to pay for college, and the options were either going into debt or deciding it wasn't worth it and just going to work. Those who did go to college and beyond came out thousands of dollars in debt and found jobs that didn't pay enough. So, how were these kids supposed to get married and buy a house? The housing market went wild; nothing is affordable for them. Let's not forget the young people who lost two years due to a national pandemic, under Trump, which was full of mixed messages, most tapping into the fear. Finally, Millennials and Gen-Z consume media vastly differently. Between social influences, podcasters, YouTube stars, Xbox, apps, and the millions of other media formats, this age group is used to listening to the loudest person in the room. That has never been the Democratic way. So, yes, we must listen, learn, and then keep doing it. My father was part of the Greatest Generation and he always said people vote with their pocketbooks, and for the majority of American's theirs are empty. Still, their American dream of living like a Kardashian is very, very much alive. Trump, for all his millions of faults, knows that. He plays a role, and the audience who grew up watching reality TV can't tell the difference between real life and what they see on Bravo. He knew it, and he used it to win the election. Good luck with your research, and thank you!
Fair enough, but are “focus groups” and “extensive study” really the way forward? This project sounds like a bonanza for consultants and not much else.
As someone who has largely voted Democrat for over 50 years, let me say that the Democrats don’t have a demographic problem or a messaging problem. You have a platform problem. Other than opposition to Donald Trump, what are the three positive planks of the party? What is the party’s position on immigration? What is the party’s position on a balanced budget and the deficit? Tax reform? How to mitigate the employment effects of trade and AI? What is the Democrats’ vision of the American future? These are the things you need to be talking about. Listening tours are a waste of time and money. Everybody knows what the issues are. The Ds need a proper response.
Dems talked about all of these things and had programs and policies for all of these things. If the media won't cover them…
If you don't address the information problem, the right-wing noise machine and the abdication of the mainstream media, then you're not addressing the real issues.
What are the Republican’s answers to all your questions?
1. Deport all illegal immigrants. No path to citizenship or permanent residency
2. Balanced budget—cut expenses, reduce income taxes and hope the magic tariff fairy makes up the difference.
3. Tax reform. Reduce income taxes and, increase tariffs
4. Let Musk and Thiel figure it out and a lot of hand waving
5. Vision—Sir Donald and his heirs as king of the world (only slightly kidding)
The Democrats have been lost message wise and platform wise since 2010.
Thanks for your comment. We hope you keep following along to learn more as we’re listening to working class voters to help inform future policies.
Partly agree. Democrats long ago forgot what the end goals are (domestic harmony, common defense, etc.) and the rationale for most interventions. Party positions should never be created outside a logically coherent model with well defined functional relationships and performance measures. And, as the “project” makes clear, Democrats are as adept at exploiting logic fallacies as are the Republicans ( “working class” relies on the anchoring effects to, yes?). Here’s the challenge, I think … the progressive movement has tried to implement two mega-programs since 1970: (1) universal access to the education and skills necessary for fulfilling work, and incentives to move to centers of innovation where relevant employers are located; and, (2) subsidies that offer a good and continuously improving quality of life to people who opt out of the education or who choose not to move. The Democrats sat by while the Republicans convinced those people who are in group 2 that they are righteous, that they are being cheated, and that the people in group 1 are elitist. Maybe it is time to ask WHY Democrat leaders only position is that they aren’t Trump.
Citizens United is heavily to blame as well as Social media fringe elements. Especially the Naive and Self Righteous SJW Hard Left who insist on Demonizing and keeping the facade of the Democratic Party being divided. Notice how the MSM loves running with it.
Agree totally that the SJ Warriors and the radical positions they espouse have turned off a huge number of individuals who use to vote Democratic, yet the huge majority of Dem elected officials either counterproductively continue to either embrace them or le sat offer little pushback on two of the most poisonous issues for the party - illegal immigration and physical treatments ( hormones and) surgery for minors, and you can throw in allowing trans women to compete with biological women in sports. Thank you Van Hollen , AOC, Pritzker, Walz, and all the other hypocritical virtue signaling pols who are hastening the destruction of the party.
But a significant percentage of voters want widely distributed opportunity, not a choice of a few centers of prosperity versus subsidy. The latter choice is a turnoff to many people who do not want to live in a few large cities.
Republicans are offering promises of a manufacturing revival and increased small business deregulation to promise to spread prosperity more widely.
What can you offer for more geographically widespread prosperity? That’s the secret sauce.
While this thread may be intellectually stimulating and correct on many points, it does not bring the “average”American into the conversation. Nor does it address their every day concerns.
I agree with Mitch. The Dems need to go into communities and listen to the concerns of Americans.
Per the results of a post 2024 election:
Post-election polling by Navigator Research on the Democratic brand found that 58 percent of Americans believe the party “prioritizes other groups of people that don't include me.” Our Democratic brand was also seen as too elite and coastal.
I don’t think that can be clearer.
To recover and survive, the Dems need to stop talking among themselves, stop hashing over the same ideas of why the election was lost and..
Go into local communities and listen and talk with Americans from all walks of life about there concerns, worries, fears and day to day challenges.
After that, remember what was said and with work with these communities to effect positive changes. Especially at the local level.
That is the only future for the party. Intellectual exchanges are interesting especially in a personal environment like a home, or small gathering.
But highly ineffective when relating thoughts and ideas to average Americans.
The model I use emphasizes “thickness.” A concentration of w
There must be, in the model I use, a concentration of skilled workers (“thickness”) and a feedback loop that draws employers. That model has reflected reality since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution and through the current service industry economy. I am not aware of any evidence-basedmodel that could be used to generate dispersed innovation. History offers no examples. I don’t know if, how, or why people have shifted to a belief that they dont need STEM schooling and / or they don’t need to move to where the innovations are happening to optimize personal opportunities. I suspect that many people influenced by Republican magical thinking also don’t accept that innovation grows the economic pie, either.
There are existing community college programs to train skilled manufacturing workers in less time than it takes to build a factory, and no shortage of workers interested in being trained.
Manufacturing has historically been widespread across the US, often in rural areas, not isolated in a few thick places. Presumably history could be your evidence-based model. This is precisely why the varied politics surrounding manufacturing are the way they are.
People with STEM schooling do not necessarily need to move to where innovations are happening to maximize personal opportunities if they WFH, which is particularly available for tech careers. (Personal experience talking.).
Dispersed small business development is strengthened with streamlined regulations and a decent universal postal system. With e-commerce so popular, many small businesses are relatively location independent. (Also personal experience talking, side gigs.)
Manufacturing is location dependent, but “decent number of trained people within commuting distance, nearby interstate or waterway or railroad, land available, and decent availability of electricity” covers a LOT of the US outside big cities.
I am skeptical, but We may be talking completely different things. Small manufacturers are indeed scattered widely across the U.S. most Americans prefer not to have those jobs, but they pay bills. The plants run processes that don’t rely so much on innovation. The government subsidies that allow the plants to operate, and workers to commute to the plants, are critical to the location decisions. Well paid, fulfilling manufacturing employers seem to require a thickness of experienced tradespeople and skilled workers … think manufacturing that requires new materials, new ways of storing and generating power, and new processes. When that kind of manufacturing matures, it moves … maybe from Boston to Detroit to Atlanta to Juarez, and then to a network of small shops. They get subsidies too, but they generate economic activity that returns more than the government input. It is not by accident that the innovation and related economic growth in the U.S. since 1970-80 or so is because of the ability to deconstruct manufacturing into unskilled line workers and the skilled service sector, like engineering and finance.
Great comment and I think you have said what is most true about this announcement.
Absolutely brilliant! Everyone should be treated as potential, persuadable voters. Your maps reflect that. This is truly appreciated and necessary.
“We have a math problem, plain and simple.
The political question before us – beyond the basics of whether our very democracy will remain intact – is whether this electoral victory was an aberration or the start of a larger political realignment. Democrats have to act urgently to find our pathway back.
We cannot win consistently without making gains with working class voters. We cannot win without making gains with men. And without a plan for competing and winning in the South and the Heartland, a Democratic governing coalition may cease to exist.”
THANK. YOU.
Thanks for your comment! We hope you keep following along to learn more as we’re listening to working class voters.
I'm with you, Jay.
One has to ask, what is the commonality between the Bernie Sanders/Donald Trump voter and the heavy turnout Sanders is receiving in ruby red districts on his anti-oligarchy tour. For political figures who appear diametrically opposed, their messaging on 'getting ahead' is remarkably the same, although dressed differently.
In either case, they are genuinely directing their messaging to the working class.
Trump is a persuasive liar, but people need to be educated. Misinformation is the only reason a people votes against their own self interest.
YES! This is what the Democratic Party needs.
Common denominator? They are poorly educated.
And that would be why they lost the election. Irony that Dems stereotype the right as racist when the left predominantly believes they are morally and intellectually superior (and don’t see what’s wrong with that). They thought the same things in 1860s about a different half of the country…but same line of thought.
The stereotype of Dems feeling morally and intellectually superior is a red herring. Having received the gift of a decent education and essential moral guidance myself, I’ve devoted my career to opening paths for others to attain these. The Democratic Party has gaping faults of course, but elite attitudes and smugness are largely absent. Now contrast this with the open eliteness and smugness of those controlling all 3 branches of our Government, alongside the destruction they are wreaking.
Mr. Landrieu exemplifies the attitude of most Dems in wanting to identify problems and then fix them in order to benefit the most people possible. What is wrong with that?
They are superior.
Is it even likely we will ever have another election… the alacrity with which they’re destroying our democracy is beyond terrifying…. Although we can’t allow them to terrify… that’s their goal…. Let’s use “very, very alarming”!!!!! Please share your research on Substack with us seniors who cannot subscribe to all that’s out there! Thank you for your posting!!!
I am all for all of the above. My only concern is if Dems cannot counteract the lies from MAGA and their megaphones in right wing media, especially Fox News, I fear it won’t be successful. Without the lies that generate fear and hate, which motivate voting, the GOP is nothing. The Dems seem to believe that people will see through the lies and do the right thing. This has been proven wrong time and time again. Truth and reality need a champion and so far the Dems have fallen far short.
Thank you for your perspective! We hope you keep following along to learn more about this project.
If this is the real deal, and I think it might be if Mitch is behind it, then this is just what the Dems(and the country) need!
Change is needed
Consideration on this topic is badly needed!
The How Matters:
I attended my first liberal political fundraiser recently after deciding that I should get more involved.
Early on the topic about what the Democratic Party’s strategy should be came up. One seemingly reasonable sounding man suggested that the approach should be to get angry and start fighting dirtier. He then went on to say that he’s encouraged by the recent AOC rallies and that he thinks she might be the answer.
I mentioned that nobody that ever I’ve discussed politics with at work would vote for her. She may get more Democrats out to vote and even win an election, but then what? We’re still stuck in the same downward, tit for tat spiral with one side ramming things through, while the other side stone walls. Endless campaigns of resentment and vengeance flip flopping back and forth.
I mentioned that I think Democrats need to change their strategy. It’s important that Democrats put forward moderate, populist candidates that can better connect to working class and rural voters.
Perhaps they should try a strategy of picking one common sense, grand view policy that could take a long time to bear fruit, but would ultimately yield better democratic results for free and fair elections. They should make less promises and stick to fixing flaws in our electoral processes that are leading more and more minority rule.
I told the group that in my experience many of the people that may lean Republican or MAGA aren’t actually as unreasonable or as unwilling to budge as they might think.
After hearing my opinion, a well meaning woman in the group gave me an infantilizing look and patted me on the back while the others giggled, as if to say, “Aww, it’s cute how naive you are with your great, big ideas little boy.”
That moment reemphasized to me the notion that it wasn’t necessarily just my ideas they found silly, but that they genuinely don’t believe that Americans can unite.
Nearly every one of my blue collar colleagues from all over the country is either Republican, Independent, Libertarian, or disaffected. Democrats are not speaking in their language.
The liberal, educated class is currently buzzing about potentially fantastic ideas like Abundance or using slogans like “Fight the Oligarchy”, but do you know who’s not listening to wonky books or saying phrases like that? My coworkers. They’re listening to people like Joe Rogan because he’s speaking to them in their language.
When Rogan endorsed Trump, I knew he would win. Some of my colleagues who are not big fans of Trump had told me that they weren’t going to vote at all, but when he endorsed him that was good enough for them.
The Republican rhetoric has more successfully painted a picture that they’re a better representation of the working class and rural communities. Despite having members who are just as equally educated and disconnected with the actual day to day life of a working class or rural American as Democrats, a Republican opportunist can put on a fishing shirt and a pair of cowboy boots and pander to their grievances.
A study was published last year by researchers Eric Hansen and Nicholas Carnes from Loyola University Chicago and Duke University respectively, finding that out of more than 7,300 lawmakers nationwide, just 116 (1.6%) currently or last worked in manual labor, service industry, clerical or labor union jobs. In 10 states, there was not a single lawmaker who currently or last worked in an occupation that could be classified as a working-class job: Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Virginia.
We need a broader collation of Americans to engage that currently aren’t and we need to attempt to persuade more Republican voters to change their minds with a more balanced and normal sounding approach. People are turned off by being scolded, reprimanded and lectured. We need to vigorously call out unAmerican injustices, but not shame and divide in the process.
Condescending language doesn’t unite. It may get attention, but it won’t solve the problems. We need to unite in a pursuit to live up to our American dream, despite our individual differences. Our country is not filled with a majority of un-empathetic and evil citizens. Maybe I’m naive, but I’m an American and a Texan and I was raised to dream big.
Thank you for your perspective! We hope you keep following along to learn more about this project.
Everything about this post hits the nail on the head. If the author of the article would just listen to you - they’d save a hell of a lot of money and time. Very well written and insightful in a way I rarely see with the left (at least publicly).
The Dems problem is not messaging - it’s themselves. America knows exactly what you really think of us.
If they want to change hearts - start by changing your thinking - then execute authentically. It’s that simple.
Very hard to reach the working class when Dems believe they are morally and intellectually superior to them (and don’t understand why it’s wrong to think that way anyway). Right? Duh? Yep.
Good luck but I think your post covers it all.
What about Kamala Harris was not moderate?
I won’t go as far as to say you’re right or wrong because I can’t know what is in another person’s heart, but just for the sake of the thought experiment, let’s say you’re right…
We’re still faced with the question about whether we want to live in a liberal democracy, or an illiberal one.
Since these people are still citizens eligible to vote and unless you’re suggesting that we deprive them of that ability, then that means that they’ll still be a part of the system whether we like it or not.
So we can either attempt to:
1) Shame them until they admit the errors of their ways (haven’t seen much evidence this works)
2)Win elections with just “our team” and force change upon them (which will always lead to a resentful, vengeance based counter movement that will only further the spiral and put “our” victories at risk if/when they regain power. We’re not going to trick or force them into liking us)
Or 3) Try to find bipartisan, common ground issues and work to effectuate gradual change. (Frustrating, boring and unsatisfying but only viable path I can see)
Like it or not this is a democracy and as long as that’s the case, they will still play their role. It seems to me the only question is how we want to play it. I would suggest we don’t lose our dignity or integrity in the process. The day we decide that the “ends justify the means”, we’ve lost…as difficult as that may be.
I think you’re right that Kamala Harris is/was fairly moderate compared to some and I think we might be on the same page concerning her for the most part.
I will say though that despite having moderate inclinations, she wasn’t successfully connecting with any of my right or independent leaning coworkers. They still viewed her as a coastal elite who’s disconnected from their realities both in terms of the working class and rural aspects. Right or wrong, that’s just how they felt.
My view for years now, long before Kamala Harris specifically, is that the Democratic Party in general has struggled to put forward candidates that can successfully connect with their realities.
Something about her and many others just hasn’t spoken to them effectively and I think it would be in the interest of the party and the country if they could do better in that regard.
"something about her"
You white liberal Texans are so butt fucked by the GOP that you can't see the obvious?
Care to enlighten me?
Your friends,coworkers... or whomever you're referring to....they didn't want to tell you this ..deep down they have issues with her because they have to, they want to, they need to...they can't help it ....she's not white,and she's a woman....and they need to lead an active social life without being called bigots ...so they rationalize with some lame bullshit.
And white Texans(I lived there for many yrs,still have friends) who aren't GOP always feel like they have to crawl deep inside of their own assholes before they see(let alone admit) how bigoted their own kith and kin, family members, and friends are .
Sadly, your white compadres are not alone ... unfortunately a whole cohort of brownies in South Texas enjoy sniffing bigot rectum also.
Enjoy the kolache festival in Brenham.
I agree. But I think Joe tied her hands and as a black woman, some voters were looking for a reason to reject her.
Thank you for your service on the bench by the way. I have great admiration for individuals who made the choice to serve something bigger than themselves. The gears keep turning because of citizens like you.
Thanks. I was very lucky to become a judge.
I appreciate your take. How would you play it?
Dems need to invest more in aggressive persuasion with regards to policies.
Make the Senate GOP believe that the threat of eliminating the legislative filibuster is so real, that they'll acquiesce to bipartisanship.
If they don't , then the legislative filibuster goes once the Dems take the Senate ,and PR, Guam get Senate seats .
We are here because they never passed the comprehensive legislation they knew was needed.
No comprehensive immigration reform, a little bit of progress towards infrastructure and climate change legislation pertaining to infrastructure… weak ass health insurance reform(forget about actual healthcare), a piss poor stimulus package in 2008…a little bit….that's it.
But it's packaged as if it's a fuckin big deal. In addition, they totally retreated after SB744 Comprehensive immigration reform was not taken up in the house by Boehner in 2013.
Allowed GOP and Trump to totally dominate the airwaves and media platforms..even if they were lying and hurting ppl.
Kept lurching rightwards on big ticket immigration policy towards unfocumented popn inside the country,but lurched leftwards towards would be immigrants that arrive as refugees but are actually economic migrants just like the undocumented who've been here for decades with no respite.
This obviously pissed of brown immigrant , mixed status voter families .
You saw that with the urban immigrant voter switching political allegiance towards the GOP.
And here we are .. constitutional crisis after crisis caused by an admin using immigrants and the immigration system as a conduit for authoritarianism.
Dems never fight back on immigration, never expend political capital on immigration reform…because they've been convinced by a few focus groups and one (Blue Rose) analyst to avoid the topic of legalizing ppl.
Apparently aggressive persuasion like what AOC , Bernie, Trump do… doesn't work in the eyes of these ppl.
But we're here, so neither does the let's sniff racist rectum strategy by adopting GOP talking points and policy and hoping Joe/Jose Xenophobe votes Dem.
No wonder brown blue collar voters turned.
No real healthcare, no real investments in their life through public policy in case of exogenous events or endogenous shocks, no comprehensive immigration reform.
They didn’t turn toTrump because the country wants itsy bitsy piecemeal legislation.
These pollsters and Blue Rose analytics have no way of quantitatively accounting for that counterfactual. They don't .
Passing big legislation that affects ppl all over for a time frame that spans decades…that sorta legislation is what the Dems have to do, …. in terms of their constituencies . Not a GOP lite platform.
Until then…nothing changes.
The only Dems that need to be elected are big legislative ticket item-Dems. Not small time legislation.
Human beings who aren't rich pols don't have 50 years to wait.
Achieve it through filibuster elimination or bipartisanship, but achieve it .
Ppl with that aggressive mindset.
That's why Trump had political momentum, inspite of losing in 2020. He captured that.
David Shor and Blue Rose’s analytics(the Dem party’s go to quantitative ppl on measures of political saliency) don't use multiple general dynamic equilibria models to capture various contexts behind voting behavior.
So, you'll see Dems rectum sniffing flavor of the month asshole after every election loss.
I get what you’re saying. The flop flopping back and forth cycle that continues to fuel polarization has to stop. Trump is going all in for big change…too far. So you think the Democrats should raise the ante right? Go big or go home?
I’m with you on something big, but whatever it is, it has to be something that isn’t going to infuriate the opposition to the point that they mount a rebellion. Otherwise the cycle just continues.
If we really want to fix it, we have to do it in a way that lasts.
Yes. Only possible if such a mentality(go big or go home) exists with the current crop of incumbents. And it's a mixed diagnostic on that one. It can't be just one piece of big legislation. It should be on many ,many fronts....New Deal style ...
The only way is for Senate Dem incumbents to grow a spine and abolish legislative filibuster...I don't think the GOP is in any mood to be substantive visavis policy prescriptions for at least a decade. It's not as if the next two cycles are not going to be full of Trump wannabes from the GOP bench.
Essential work!
This is great. And, it's late. Two things: Why are some states gray, i.e. not included? At some point, every single voter in every single state must be sought after to vote for us. The point is to get more votes than Republicans. The point of winning elections is not to get a trophy, but to better represent the people. The fact Democrats decided to write people off breaks my heart. That was supposed to be how Republicans acted, not us. Send your ivy-league educated interns into every state. Embed them and consider it a foreign exchange student program. Put them to work rebuilding Democratic Party apparatus at the local level.
Second, build long-term relationships within the community. Re-create the equivalent of when I was a kid and politicians sat at Dairy Queen drinking coffee with the farmers. There's an authentic focus group. If a community doesn't have community activities, let the Democratic Party start some! Sponsor fundraisers for the school, do the river clean-up, the Easter Egg hunt, etc.
If you want to know what the working class thinks, then go live with them. And - you could ask Bernie. Every time he speaks, the working-class responds. Back in 2015, he was the voice crying in the wilderness. Someone should have taken the lessons from how his campaign resonated with the working class and undertaken to incorporate his points into the Democratic strategy. And please, take a lesson from those crowds he is currently drawing. Send some Democratic operatives into those crowds and ask them what they want from us and from government.
Also, Democrats - stop wasting our small donor money on internal BS and consultants. Get out into the grass roots and start plowing the ground so we can get more votes than the other side.The people are rising up. Why not let the Democratic Party jump in front of that bandwagon and actually present them with some leaders? Unless the unrest that is building has some direction, Trump can and will take advantage of the chaos.
Thank you for your perspective! We hope you keep following along to learn more about this project.
Very good start!
Mayor, I love hearing that your leading this work! Ten years ago, we were known as the party of education (+26 over Republicans). Today, we’re underwater!! I’d love to hear your thoughts on what Dems must do to regain our advantage on education. We’re doing some deep work on this at DFER. Would love to compare notes anytime.
Thanks for your comment and engagement! We hope you keep following along to learn more as we’re listening to working class voters to help inform future policies.
While this is a good first step--a critical one--but the solution is not messaging, or organizing or new policies. It's how do we reform government so it works achieves results quickly? I'm afraid that will require re-writing many of the laws liberals have come to love because it allows them to stop progress rather than achieve big things. https://bobgriendling688562.substack.com/p/trumps-failures-are-not-the-dems?utm_source=substack&utm_content=feed%3Arecommended%3Acopy_link
Thank you for doing this. I couldn't agree more that listening is how this party will find a path forward. I am a Gen-Xer and know precisely why we're here. There is a new generation of voters out there, 18-45, and life hasn't been easy for them. They grew up with diversity/inclusion, and for the most part, don't know what the big deal is. They expect it. So we're not winning any votes by making that our central issue. These kids grew up with school shootings, trying to learn in an environment where school shooter drills became as normal as fire drills. Whether they would admit it or not, they were probably scared and uncertain all the time. They needed to find ways to pay for college, and the options were either going into debt or deciding it wasn't worth it and just going to work. Those who did go to college and beyond came out thousands of dollars in debt and found jobs that didn't pay enough. So, how were these kids supposed to get married and buy a house? The housing market went wild; nothing is affordable for them. Let's not forget the young people who lost two years due to a national pandemic, under Trump, which was full of mixed messages, most tapping into the fear. Finally, Millennials and Gen-Z consume media vastly differently. Between social influences, podcasters, YouTube stars, Xbox, apps, and the millions of other media formats, this age group is used to listening to the loudest person in the room. That has never been the Democratic way. So, yes, we must listen, learn, and then keep doing it. My father was part of the Greatest Generation and he always said people vote with their pocketbooks, and for the majority of American's theirs are empty. Still, their American dream of living like a Kardashian is very, very much alive. Trump, for all his millions of faults, knows that. He plays a role, and the audience who grew up watching reality TV can't tell the difference between real life and what they see on Bravo. He knew it, and he used it to win the election. Good luck with your research, and thank you!
Thanks for the comment! We agree!
Fair enough, but are “focus groups” and “extensive study” really the way forward? This project sounds like a bonanza for consultants and not much else.