Working Class Weekly: Cracks Emerge Among White Working Class Voters in North Carolina
We’re back this week with new findings from the largest research effort in the Democratic Party to understand how working class voters are thinking about the 2026 midterms — and what Democrats need to do to earn their votes.
In late April, we conducted two virtual focus groups with white working class swing voters in North Carolina– one with women, one with men. Most participants voted for Trump in 2024.
As one of two Republican-held U.S. Senate seats rated “tossup,” North Carolina is a top-tier battleground in the midterms. And following Senator Thom Tillis’ retirement, the state is one of Democrats’ best pickup opportunities. The race is between former Gov. Roy Cooper and RNC Chair Michael Whatley after both secured their nominations. The state also boasts several competitive House races and several that are on the cusp of being competitive if conditions continue to shift against President Trump and Congressional Republicans.
Working class voters in the state will tip the scales in either direction.
What we heard should give Democrats both real cause for optimism and a clear-eyed sense of the work still ahead.
The headline: Trump and the GOP’s support is fracturing due to the economy — and the war in Iran is a crack that’s widening it.
THE COST OF LIVING IS STILL THE MOST IMPORTANT THING THAT REALLY MATTERS
If you’ve been following this newsletter and our work the past year, none of this will surprise you. Working class voters in every state we’ve visited lead with the same concern: everything costs too much, wages aren’t keeping up, and life feels unsustainable.
North Carolina is no different.
“The prices of everything. Nobody can afford to live these days.” — white man
“Duke Energy has monopolized the industry in our area of North Carolina and they know that they have us. And the only way we’re going to be able to get out of it is to move… People like me, we can’t afford to pay a thousand dollars a month in our bill.” — white woman
“You are going to have more and more people dying because they’re not going to be able to afford health care. It’s already a big deal because our copays went up and our benefits went down.” – white woman
These voters rattled off a familiar list: groceries, gas, utilities, health care. When probed on health insurance specifically, they had horror stories — one man said his wife is being denied coverage for life-saving medication. They agreed that health care prices are “ridiculous,” even if they didn’t bring it up unprompted.
The frustration isn’t abstract. It’s increasing electric bills. It’s choosing between a car payment and rent. It’s the expense of urgent medical care.
On tariffs, another topic that has dominated economic discussions at times, voters are skeptical but not as uniformly hostile as we found in groups last year. A few people mentioned tariffs as a driver of inflation (including on products at work), and most agree that, so far, they have hurt Americans more than helped them. However, they were less of a top of mind concern than we’ve seen in the past.
TRUMP IS LOSING THEM — AND IRAN IS WHY
Most participants voted for Trump in 2024 and still give him grudging credit for inheriting a bad economy. But patience is running out. Not a single participant gave him an A. Most clustered in the B and C range — and several gave him an F.
What’s driving the decline?
The economy (as noted above), coupled with the war.
These voters don’t understand why we’re fighting in Iran. They can’t explain what the goal is. They’re skeptical it will end anytime soon. And they’re furious about what it’s costing them — at the gas pump, in their tax dollars, and in Trump’s own distracted attention.
“The people can’t make it more than paycheck to paycheck, and he’s worried about the bullies across the ocean.” — white man
“Recently, with the Iran thing, I’m a little shaken by that and with not being able to afford things, because the fuel expense and everything else goes up. It honestly has really devastated me.” – white man
“It was kind of scary to think, here we are after all this time going into war again.” — white woman
“Iran is not going to roll over and stop being a terrorist country.” – white man
The split-screen image — Trump focused on foreign conflicts while working families can’t afford basics — dominated both groups in the Tarheel state. These are not anti-war voters in an ideological sense. They’re just exhausted and feel left behind. And when Trump says the economy is strong, they don’t just disagree, they are downright offended.
“That’s crock. I’m not calling him a boldfaced liar, but that was a lie. If anybody thinks that inflation is over, they haven’t gone to the grocery store lately or stepped outside and got gas.” — white man
THE DEMOCRATIC BRAND IS STILL WEAK — BUT THE OPENING IS REAL
We have to be honest about what we hear. These voters still lean Republican. They think Democrats don’t stand for anything except fighting Trump. They couldn’t articulate a positive Democratic agenda when asked. And one pointed to the government shutdown as an example of Democrats being needlessly combative rather than constructive. But something has shifted. More than a year into unified Republican control, these voters aren’t seeing results. And many — especially the women — said they’re ready to give Democrats a chance as a “change” vote.
“I would rather give the Democrats a chance at changing things because the Republicans so far are showing us that they don’t know exactly what they’re doing.” — white woman
That’s not enthusiasm. But in a midterm election, it’s enough.
CORRUPTION *COULD* HELP UNLOCK THE DOOR
Among the most actionable findings from these groups: corruption messaging is starting to break through.
For the last year of The Working Class Project, we have seen voters assume politicians are corrupt on both sides.
Here in North Carolina, a white man gave a very familiar refrain: “I think they’re all corrupt in the same way that they’re receiving money from big companies and other countries in order to influence what should or shouldn’t happen rather than listening to the population.”
That cynicism sounds like a dead end — but it’s actually an opening. Because when you give them specific, concrete examples of Trump and Congressional Republicans taking money from special interests and voting to protect those interests over their constituents’ pocket books, it lands. It confirms what they already suspect. And it moves votes.
The single top-testing negative hit across both groups: a Republican who refused to pass a stock trading ban, letting members of Congress keep making millions off insider deals.
Also highly effective were:
A Republican who took millions from big tech companies and voted to ban states from regulating AI — making it illegal to protect kids and seniors from AI abuses
A Republican who took money from big utility companies, let them jack up energy rates, and repealed energy tax credits used by 89,000 North Carolina households
Health care costs and corruption messaging worked in both groups. Voters are negative on the state of health care in America, and frustrated that Republicans are making the problem worse by voting to gut Medicaid. So these messages connect several dots for voters:
A Republican who voted to gut Medicaid, kicking 600,000 North Carolinians off coverage and shuttering rural hospitals — while driving a nearly 29% average insurance premium spike for close to a million residents
A Republican who took hundreds of thousands from big pharma and insurance companies, then voted against capping insulin costs
One important note on framing: these voters don’t need the vocabulary of corruption explained to them in academic terms. Keep it simple: It’s about fairness. Politicians are taking money from big companies and then vote to protect those interests which makes your life harder (and more expensive). That is grounded in what they already believe.
Overall, the door is open in North Carolina. These former Trump working class voters aren’t persuaded voters yet. But they are persuadable. And that’s more than we could say a year ago.
NEXT WEEK: We hear from swing working class voters in focus groups in Iowa, a key House, Senate and Gubernatorial battleground.
Subscribe for free to receive new findings every week.