Working Class Weekly: Squeezed and Starting to Turn in Iowa

May 20, 2026

We’re back this week with new findings from the largest research effort in the Democratic Party to understand how working class voters are thinking about the 2026 midterms — and what Democrats need to do to earn their votes.

We went to Iowa at the end of April and talked to working-class white voters — women aged 40 to 64, men aged 25 to 54 — the kinds of people who live in the middle of our political universe heading into 2026. Independents. Soft partisans. People who have voted both ways and could again.

Iowa boasts a trifecta of important races, including U.S. Senate, several competitive House races, and a top-tier gubernatorial pickup opportunity. The U.S. Senate seat is an open-seat race after Republican Sen. Joni Ernst declined to seek reelection, creating a rare pickup opportunity for Democrats. Three of the state’s U.S. House seats are competitive in this environment. An additional dynamic to watch is the governor’s race in which state auditor Rob Sand (the only statewide elected Democrat) is in a solid early position. Iowa is a high probability tipping point state for control of the House and Senate, which means white working class voters here could make all the difference.

Here’s what we found.

THE COUNTRY FEELS LIKE A “HOT MESS”

We didn’t even have to ask about politics. Before our groups had properly begun, before anyone knew exactly what we were there to discuss, the word “politics” was already in the room.

When we simply asked people how they were feeling about the country, every single response was negative. Not ambivalent. Not mixed. Everyone was downright negative.

Women used words like “disgusted,” “terrified,” and “full of rage.”

Men were somewhat cooler — “aggravated,” “antsy,” “concerned” — but no less dark.

The country was described, unprompted, as “a hot mess” full of division and uncertainty. The tone among the women was notably more dire from the start.

That’s worth sitting with for a moment. These are not committed Democrats primed to criticize a Republican president. Many of them voted for Trump.

But they do not like where we are today.

THE ECONOMIC SQUEEZE IS REAL

As consistent as it’s been, the economic insecurity these Iowa voters are describing feels acute. It is nothing new for these voters — many said they’ve felt the pressure their whole lives. But what they’re experiencing now feels different even to them. The stories came quickly and without prompting.

Affording groceries, insurance, and kids’ extracurricular activities all presented challenges, while jobs simply don’t pay what they used to.

A self-employed man described spending nearly $3,000 a month on insurance premiums alone — business, health, home, and auto — and said those numbers had roughly tripled over five years. A family of four said they were spending $200 to $300 on groceries for a week and a half, calling it “absolutely insane.” A man with a dual income said he felt more financially secure when he was making far less money — because at least the math still worked.

“My wife and I — we’re making more now than I ever thought we would, and it still does not feel... when I was making exponentially less, I felt more comfortable back then than I do now on a dual income.” -white man

“We’re spending somewhere between $200 to $300 for a week and a half of groceries for a family of four. It’s just getting absolutely insane as far as grocery prices go.” -white man

“Our home and auto insurances went up probably 50% — I bet our total costs went up 50% over the last year and a half.” -white man

The coping strategies people described were also telling. From skipping doctor visits to picking up bartending shifts on top of a day job to keeping adult children at home because neither generation can afford to live independently, these are real sacrifices just to get by.

“We try not to go to the doctor. I have monthly medications, but I have a high deductible health plan, so it’s the lowest cost. I have a health savings account that I maybe put $1,500 in... my monthly prescriptions are cheaper on the good RX than they are with my insurance. I pay for that, and I can’t even benefit from it.” -white woman

“That’s why my three kids are still living at home. It’s because with me being by myself, raising them since 2004, I can’t afford to pay the mortgage and the utilities and everything else, and I’m retiring on top of it and trying to figure out what I’m going to do for Medicare.” – white woman

“I picked up bartending. But the other side of that is a lot of people don’t have disposable income. I also got on with a nonprofit organization because my daughter decided ‘I want to do all-star cheer.’ That’s $380 a month.” -white woman

As these direct quotes illustrate, these are not abstract policy complaints, this is daily life.

WOMEN HAVE TURNED ON TRUMP, AND IT’S PERSONAL, WHILE THE MEN ARE NOT YET READY TO MOVE ON

This is the headline from Iowa, and it deserves to be treated as one.

Women in our groups who had voted for Trump did not sound much different from women who had voted for Harris. When we asked Trump voters how they felt about their vote today, they were notably less defensive than we’ve observed in past research.

The dominant explanation was a phrase worth remembering: “I voted based on the knowledge I had.”

Past tense. That chapter is closed.

Their criticism of Trump wasn’t primarily about policy, though policy came up. It was about character — ego, chaos, a sense of abandonment. One woman who gave Trump the best grade in the group, a C, explained it by saying he’d done some good things “but don’t ask me specifically what.” Another said simply: “He did good the first time, but then the second time, it just sucks.”

When we tallied the grades women gave Trump on his second term and six out of seven women graded Trump a D or an F. Not one graded him above a C.

The men in our groups were still more willing to give Trump the benefit of the doubt — just as last year– but that’s a low bar. But unlike in 2025, this time every man graded him a C or below. They criticized him for being too focused on foreign policy and for needing to “shut up and stay off the social media.” More revealing: even the men who were inclined to be charitable struggled, when pressed, to name specific things they liked about Trump’s second-term record.

Like so much about what we hear in these groups, some of it is his lack of attention to lowering costs. His saying the economy is strong may be Trump’s biggest mistake.

When Trump called the economy strong and invoked a “golden age,” it landed like a punch to the gut in both groups — but it was especially damaging with the men who were otherwise most willing to cut him slack.

There’s a critical distinction these voters draw that Democrats should understand clearly: Trump saying outrageous things is one thing. Trump telling them their own struggles aren’t real is something else entirely. The first is politics. The second is a lie about their lives. The second is not forgiven.

The men also drew a sharp distinction that Democratic strategists should pay attention to: they were far more engaged with the details of Iran — exit strategies, control of the Strait of Hormuz, what victory even looks like — while the women simply viewed the entire enterprise as a major misuse of presidential priorities and attention.

NUANCE ON IMMIGRATION

One issue that could raise some concern for Democrats campaigning in the state is immigration. Several participants named immigration as an area where Trump had at least tried to deliver on his promises. But our two focus groups diverged sharply.

The men wanted more ICE enforcement, more deportations, stronger borders. The women were more discomforted by specific actions, particularly the “Minnesota thing,” which they described simply as going too far and “just sad.”

This is a live fault line within the very coalition Democrats need to recapture. Any message on immigration that works for one of these groups risks alienating the other. This is an issue we’ll have to continue to monitor with these swing working class voters.

SOME MOVEMENT ON DEMOCRATIC BRAND, BUT NOT GOOD YET

When we asked voters what Democrats stand for, the most common answer was some version of: they’d say they’re not Trump. Not a vision. Not a policy. Not even a value. Just opposition.

Democrats were also described as “muddled.” Voters — including some who are ready to vote against Republicans — could not articulate a single Democratic policy agenda item they expected Democrats to fight for. Several men mentioned “woke” issues, particularly transgender athletes in sports, as a Democratic vulnerability.

The warning from our 2025 research remains true: Trump’s weakness is not automatically Democratic strength.

The opposition to Trump and change mantra may be just enough in 2026. But we had better get to articulating a vision soon thereafter. Voters need something to vote for, not just something to vote against.

THE MESSAGES THAT BREAK THROUGH

We tested a range of attack messages on Republican candidates. The results were clear.

Cost messages are largely persuasive. Cuts to Medicaid, cuts to SNAP, nursing home staffing standards — these aren’t abstract to women who are often the caregivers in their families, who sit with aging parents and children with disabilities and neighbors who need help. The cuts feel personal because they are personal. Many of the women we talked to were serving as caregivers to multiple generations in their own lives, so it is unsurprising they responded most strongly to messages attacking Republicans’ cuts to health care and food assistance. Interestingly, changing the rules for mandatory staffing minimums at nursing homes also alarmed some women, who had close-up experience with the vulnerabilities in this kind of care.

“The cuts to Medicare and Medicaid are terrifying, because children and people with special needs depend on that to survive. Seniors are getting older and with less money and disposable income, and so they need affordable housing. They need access to medical care. Our rural communities are losing hospitals.” - white woman

“I live it firsthand, not me personally, but I volunteer at a local community shelter, and to see the need of the folks that are coming in now — it’s completely changed over the past two years. Kids are going hungry, adults are going hungry, seniors are going hungry.” white woman)

“I’ve worked in a nursing home too, and I saw how bad the staff was and how understaffed they were, and so the people did not get treated like they needed to be. They didn’t get the care.” (Woman)

For men, corruption is the entry point. Like in North Carolina, the top message overall in Iowa — by a wide margin — was about a Republican who blocked a stock trading ban while enriching themselves in office. Men especially responded viscerally to the idea that members of Congress enter at $174,000 a year and leave worth $30 million. They already believe the system is rigged; a candidate’s stock portfolio is vivid, concrete proof. The utility company message also resonated strongly: monopoly energy providers raising rates while their CEOs get tax cuts is exactly the kind of insider dealing that makes these voters furious.

Abortion is more salient than campaigns assume. Despite the sense in some consulting circles that abortion has been “priced in” and Democrats should move on, it was highly salient in both groups — as a contrast issue, as a hit on Republican candidates, and as part of a broader story about Republicans taking away personal freedoms. We believe this issue warrants continued investment in research and messaging, particularly in combination with health care.

Epstein is also an active issue. The Epstein files message — a Republican who voted to keep them secret — drew a fierce reaction. Women did not see it as a niche political story. They saw it as the powerful protecting predators while victims get nothing.

For men: roads, town halls, and corruption cumulate. Individual messages about avoiding town halls or approving a White House ballroom weren’t knock-outs on their own. But men acknowledged that seeing them together, stacked up, changes how you view a candidate. The road message resonated strongly and locally — Iowa infrastructure is terrible, these voters know it, and a politician who ignores it is a politician who ignores them.

ON THE BALLOT

With competitive races up and down the ballot, it was interesting to us that the Governor’s race attracted some of the most formed discussion.

Rob Sand is the most visible Democrat in the state — aided by early advertising — but awareness of other statewide candidates is thin, and House candidates are unknown.

The 2026 landscape in Iowa will be shaped significantly by whether Democrats can build name recognition and a coherent narrative well before Election Day.

For Sand especially, there’s an openness based on the brand he’s created as state auditor:

“It seems like he wants to fix things with money and accountability and with… the money that’s going for, like the private schools.… He’ll shape things up.”

“I did appreciate him the other day calling out the nonsense with the lack of transparency in the school, in that in the Des Moines school situation with their principal.”

“He’s very focused towards schools. I mean, I’ve heard of him. I just don’t know a lot about his stance.”

“He’s the state auditor.”

The senate and house races are less defined.

The window is open, but it won’t stay open. The anger in these rooms is not partisan anger. It’s the anger of people who feel let down, squeezed, and lied to. That’s an opening for Democrats — but only if Democrats give these voters something concrete to hold onto. Vague opposition to Trump won’t be enough. Specific promises, credibly made, about the economic pressures these families face every day: that’s the work.

Iowa is not a gimme. But it’s in play in ways it hasn’t been in a long time. We’ll be watching.

NEXT WEEK: We hear from swing working class voters in focus groups in Georgia, a key Senate and Gubernatorial battleground.

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